Two things died today, 2/24/22

[RandyPNW]

As far as thinking things can't work out with Russia, I think that's a bit on the negative side. There has to be a resolution proposed that does not include WW3, if possible. A referendum is a good idea, I should think.

I just explained why it's a bad idea, and you haven't addressed it at all. A people under military occupation by a dictator are not going to vote freely and it doesn't matter who's watching. The Anschluss, remember?

Yes, I hadn't forgotten. I thought I was addressing that. What I said was other nations can be invited in to monitor the referendum. That could be part of a peace proposal, a truce, or perhaps a treaty. Obviously, if Russia refuses to agree to it, the battle may continue. I'm just looking for *possibilities.*

Obviously, if a referendum, or an election, can be monitored by the world, then Russia will be watched by the world as to how they deal with it. If Putin starts murdering everybody who voted to align with Ukraine, what do you think the world will do?

[Athanasius]

Obviously, if a referendum, or an election, can be monitored by the world, then Russia will be watched by the world as to how they deal with it. If Putin starts murdering everybody who voted to align with Ukraine, what do you think the world will do?

Nothing. That's an issue Russians need to work out.

[Fenris]

Yes, I hadn't forgotten. I thought I was addressing that. What I said was other nations can be invited in to monitor the referendum.

Yes, and "other nations" promised the Ukraine that if they gave up nukes, their security would be guaranteed. How did that work out? Russia had already carved away pieces of Ukraine prior to this invasion.

Do you think the Ukrainians are stupid?

Obviously, if a referendum, or an election, can be monitored by the world, then Russia will be watched by the world as to how they deal with it. If Putin starts murdering everybody who voted to align with Ukraine, what do you think the world will do?

The same thing they're doing now? Rooting from the sidelines?

[RandyPNW]

Yes, I hadn't forgotten. I thought I was addressing that. What I said was other nations can be invited in to monitor the referendum.

Yes, and "other nations" promised the Ukraine that if they gave up nukes, their security would be guaranteed. How did that work out? Russia had already carved away pieces of Ukraine prior to this invasion.

Do you think the Ukrainians are stupid?

No, I think Biden and the Democrats are stupid--not intellectually inferior, of course, but foolish--stupid in that way. The Democrats put Biden in office by hiding material in the media like Hunter Biden's escapades in Ukraine, Russia, and China. If that information had been digested, Biden probably wouldn't be President of the US.

But the Dems wanted Biden as a puppet for their cause, to develop new political partnerships. They did this by forming new political alliances with special interest groups that generate a new power base, guaranteeing they would be in power for a long, long time.

This is a Europe-wide strategy, to pursue safe sources of energy, to prevent dependence upon external oil sources. And in the meantime the elusive wish to  project equality and fairness throughout the world was supposed to invite free trade in the expectation that equal sufficiency among the nations would lessen the animosity and jealousy among nations.

That's what "Climate Change" has done for elitists in Europe and in the U.S. It is an attempt at breaking free of dependence on oil suppliers, though this has oddly led to the opposite--to dependence on the oil suppliers.

People are called upon to follow a "pipe dream," which is wonderful, but certainly doesn't meet today's immediate needs. Wouldn't it be nice?, sang the Beach Boys.

No, I think the forces that separate nations still arise from jealousy and from political ambition. Trading freely with Russia, and speaking well of their place in the world certainly isn't working.

Putin is competing with a bloc of nations across Europe, as if he is putting up a wall against the concept of "free nations." Putin's Russia has claimed to be democratic. So let's see a referendum in Ukraine. There are people in some regions who wish to be loyal to Russia. And there are people in the same regions who wish to be loyal to Ukraine.

These things have to be resolved politically. And the only preventive against jealousy and ambition is the threat of force. Up to now NATO has resisted doing this, out of fear of a nuclear war. Pride can indeed lead to that.

But at some point, we have to choose if we should save the world and let people be inhumanly crushed. It's a matter for prayer, but I think we already know the answer.

[Fenris]

No, I think Biden and the Democrats are stupid--not intellectually inferior, of course, but foolish--stupid in that way. The Democrats put Biden in office by hiding material in the media like Hunter Biden's escapades in Ukraine, Russia, and China. If that information had been digested, Biden probably wouldn't be President of the US.

But the Dems wanted Biden as a puppet for their cause, to develop new political partnerships. They did this by forming new political alliances with special interest groups that generate a new power base, guaranteeing they would be in power for a long, long time.

This is a Europe-wide strategy, to pursue safe sources of energy, to prevent dependence upon external oil sources. And in the meantime the elusive wish to  project equality and fairness throughout the world was supposed to invite free trade in the expectation that equal sufficiency among the nations would lessen the animosity and jealousy among nations.

That's what "Climate Change" has done for elitists in Europe and in the U.S. It is an attempt at breaking free of dependence on oil suppliers, though this has oddly led to the opposite--to dependence on the oil suppliers.

People are called upon to follow a "pipe dream," which is wonderful, but certainly doesn't meet today's immediate needs. Wouldn't it be nice?, sang the Beach Boys.

No, I think the forces that separate nations still arise from jealousy and from political ambition. Trading freely with Russia, and speaking well of their place in the world certainly isn't working.

Putin is competing with a bloc of nations across Europe, as if he is putting up a wall against the concept of "free nations." Putin's Russia has claimed to be democratic. So let's see a referendum in Ukraine. There are people in some regions who wish to be loyal to Russia. And there are people in the same regions who wish to be loyal to Ukraine.

These things have to be resolved politically. And the only preventive against jealousy and ambition is the threat of force. Up to now NATO has resisted doing this, out of fear of a nuclear war. Pride can indeed lead to that.

But at some point, we have to choose if we should save the world and let people be inhumanly crushed. It's a matter for prayer, but I think we already know the answer.

OK, so I see this is becoming a theme with you. I ask a question or raise a legitimate concern over something that you said, and your reply is a lengthy exposition having nothing to do with what I said. So I'm going to raise my objection again.

You said that there should a referendum held in the areas of the Ukraine under Russian control, to see whether they want to remain Ukrainian or be ceded to Russia. I pointed out that areas under foreign military occupation by dictatorships will vote in favor because they'll get shot if they don't.  I even provided a historical example. Your response would be what?

[Mcgyver]

Hey all!

Good to see so many familiar names!!!

Even though I'm joining the conversation late, I'd like to throw a couple of things out there... and let me preface this by saying that my perspective is from many years of preparing to meet the screaming Soviet hordes as they streamed through the Fulda Gap, and many hours in classrooms on Smoke Bomb Hill at Ft Bragg studying the enemy. These opinions are my own...

First of all, after the fall of the USSR many former apparatchiks were stunned and ashamed of what had happened to "Mother Russia". The loss of prestige and power on the world stage (as well as personal power) and the social upheaval that went with it was almost too much to bear. The Russian military...the glory of the Soviet Union...was a collection of rustng ships without fuel, tanks and aircraft without parts, and a shrinking army they couldn't afford to pay for. The worst blow to the national psyche was the loss of influence in the world. Former Warsaw Pact nations joining NATO??? Egads!!!

So then, I think that in Putin we see a man driven to reclaim the glory of the Soviet Union...he's spent the last 22 years rebuilding the Russian military and bringing a sense of pride back to the Russian people.

This makes him extraordinarily dangerous IMO because he is a driven man.

I think that we can see direct correlations to the rise of the NSDAP and the 3d Reich after WW1, and the grabbing for land, prestige, and power that ultimately plunged Europe into WW2.

I've said all that to say this: Russia today has broken out and is following the old Soviet playbook to the letter. Not only militarily, but also in terms of establishing a new Iron Curtain in Russia herself.

Therefore (and this is my opinion), any negotiated peace will only be possible if the Ukrainians are negotiating from a position of power, otherwise such peace will be seen by Putin as a victory...and I fear he will be encouraged to invade yet more countries.

Thanks for letting me rant....

[Fenris]

Hey all!

Good to see so many familiar names!!!

Heya! 

Even though I'm joining the conversation late, I'd like to throw a couple of things out there... and let me preface this by saying that my perspective is from many years of preparing to meet the screaming Soviet hordes as they streamed through the Fulda Gap, and many hours in classrooms on Smoke Bomb Hill at Ft Bragg studying the enemy.

And thank you for your service.

So then, I think that in Putin we see a man driven to reclaim the glory of the Soviet Union...he's spent the last 22 years rebuilding the Russian military and bringing a sense of pride back to the Russian people.

This makes him extraordinarily dangerous IMO because he is a driven man.

Agree 100%. And the way he's set up poltiics in Russia, he holds even more power than the Soviet General Secretaries did.

Therefore (and this is my opinion), any negotiated peace will only be possible if the Ukrainians are negotiating from a position of power, otherwise such peace will be seen by Putin as a victory...and I fear he will be encouraged to invade yet more countries.

Even more, Russia must be made to pay some price for invading a neighbor, killing untold numbers of civilians, and doing billions of dollars in damage. If Putin said "My troops will leave the Ukraine today, can things now go back to the way they were before the invasion?" the answer has to be "no".

[Mcgyver]

I agree fully...there must follow a consequence, and this is (where I think) things get even stickier...
If the consequences are too severe I think we run the risk of repeating history...once again referring to the situation in Germany after WW1 with the reparations that were imposed by the victors.

Conversely, if there are no consequences there is the risk that he will be emboldened (Crimea 2014 anyone?)

That's a really fine line and I hope we collectively have the wisdom to stay on right side of it...

[Fenris]

I agree fully...there must follow a consequence, and this is (where I think) things get even stickier...
If the consequences are too severe I think we run the risk of repeating history...once again referring to the situation in Germany after WW1 with the reparations that were imposed by the victors.

I'm less worried about this outcome because Russia 2022 is not Germany 1918. Germany had a strong economy and a high birth rate. Russia has a weak economy (basically all they do is export raw materials, and their GDP is minuscule) and their birth rate is below hovering around 1.5 per married couple. Their population is declining around 2% every year.

They have nukes though. And they could start slinging them on their way down. That's the real problem.

(And as an aside, why are we working on that God awful nuclear deal with Iran? They're bad actors and it would render them immune to attack- and that's the best case scenario. The worse case is they nuke Israel.)

[Mcgyver]

That's a good point...

As far as the nuclear deal with Iran... I'm rolling my eyes, sighing heavily and thinking of two words: "Operation Opera"...

[Fenris]

As far as the nuclear deal with Iran... I'm rolling my eyes, sighing heavily and thinking of two words: "Operation Opera"...

Same. But Iran is a more difficult situation.

1) The targets are twice as far as Baghdad
2) They are dispersed, and in difficult to target areas like inside mountains or residential areas
3) Iran is prepared for an attack, unlike Saddam
4) Not ever talked about, but the US has a powerful radar station in the Negev, pointed northeast towards Iran. It would spot ICBMs inbound from Iran before Israeli radar towers. Unfortunately it would also spot an Israeli strike going towards Iran. And with the Biden administration all in on playing nice with Iran, they'd have plenty of time to notify the Iranian Mullahs that an Israeli strike is inbound.

Weirdly enough, Israel does not have live data from the radar towers. They only have what the US government chooses to share with them.

[Mcgyver]

I don't know...the Israelis have a way of pulling off the impossible lol.

But seriously, a nuclear armed Iran is the stuff of nightmares... wish I knew the answer...