What is the likely outcome of Russia's invasion of Ukraine?

[IMINXTC]

The least that should be demanded from Russia before economic and diplomatic restoration should be a complete and verifiable surrendering of it's nuclear arsenal.

Don't take any wooden nickels.

[Athanasius]

The only way that happens is if Russia is utterly subjugated, that is, giving up its nuclear arsenal. Monies can be extracted from the country regardless.

[Cloudwalker]

Actually the POTUS always travels with the nuclear football.  He has access to it at all times.

Does he even know what it is?

"Ah yes, this is the football from that time in high school when I scored four touchdowns in a single game. Polk High, it was." Stares off into the distance. "My girlfriend Peggy was so proud of me. And now I'm a shoe salesman. What were we talking about again?"

I'm afraid you might be right.  I'm not sure which is more frightening, that he doesn't know, or that he does.

[RabbiKnife]

Edith Wilson…. I mean, Dr. Jill… is on her way to the Ukraine now to fix everything.

[Fenris]

The least that should be demanded from Russia before economic and diplomatic restoration should be a complete and verifiable surrendering of it's nuclear arsenal.

Ideally, ah. But the Russians will never agree to this. They'd launch them instead.

We should demand that Putin step down and not run for office again.

[IMINXTC]

Are folks expecting this thing to fizzle out - Putin soon withdrawing?

I had rather dug in with the idea that he is likely to continue
smashing Ukraine until it is basically destroyed 

[Athanasius]

Are folks expecting this thing to fizzle out - Putin soon withdrawing?

I had rather dug in with the idea that he is likely to continue
smashing Ukraine until it is basically destroyed

I think if trends continue, Ukraine will be flattened, but Russia won't have anything to show for it. Or, Ukraine wins, but it's a pyrrhic victory because, well, Ukraine was flattened in the process. I don't see Russia winning.

I do see Russians accepting the idea that the West has demonstrated once more just how against Russia it is, so this will further polarise divisions. Weak Russia means stronger China so that's fun too. Putin will either die or find himself dead, but will be replaced by another KGB FSB whatever devil with a different face, but who may as well be Putin.