What is the likely outcome of Russia's invasion of Ukraine?

[Sojourner]

WW1 and WW2 both began when escalating conflict between two nations prompted opposing international alliances to become engaged. In both cases, the intervening countries aligned with one of the two in dispute, based primarily on their own national interests. The current situation between Russia and Ukraine represents similar conditions to those that precipitated both of those wars. Currently, there are governments that support Putin's actions, as well as those that condemn them.

Yet, as the world looks on, the looming specter of WW3 is causing all to exercise extreme caution in their response to Putin's aggression. Indeed, an international war involving thermonuclear weapons represents a nightmarish scenario that could eclipse the horrific carnage of both previous world wars combined. As military and political hands are strategically dealt and played, the wild card is Vladimir Putin.

Putin has already demonstrated a propensity to do as he pleases without regard for world opinion. Modifying the Russian Constitution to extend his hold on power, blatantly poisoning political enemies with a radioactive  substance, imprisoning others on trumped up charges, and waging a bloody war to seize control of a sovereign country are among his in-your-face actions as Russian President. Both mercurial and suffering from delusions of grandeur, he is unstable and capable of anything. He made a miscalculation with Ukraine however, seemingly underestimating the will and fighting spirit of the Ukrainians. In the last several months, he's sacrificed roughly the same number of Russian soldiers lost in almost 10 years of war with Afghanistan.

Yet resistance will not deter him. On the contrary, Angered by a challenge to his authority, as well as sanctions imposed against him and aid given to Ukraine, his frustration and economic alienation will almost certainly provoke even more violent measures. Moreover, that isolation will also tend to facilitate an alliance with China as an active ally. With its own designs on Taiwan and Hong Kong, China shares Russia's authoritarian and hegemonic philosophy which lends itself to such an alliance. The prospect of Russia and China united in an all-out war is a frightening prospect. Add in nations likely to fight with them such as North Korea, and things can look apocalyptic.

Hard to say how things will play out, but clearly, the stage is set for escalation into international conflict. Yet, no matter how events turn out, God is still on the throne. We may not know what the future holds, but we know Who holds the future. Still, while God's people are promised a glorious destination, we have no assurances of a smooth journey. There will be rough roads and we will see things we don't like along the way. Yet, we can take comfort knowing that unsettling events have no bearing on our eternal destiny, and ultimately will be in accordance with God's divine will and purpose.

[Athanasius]

Putin will die of whatever terminal disease he has. Russia will relent to save face but live a reality worse than it did in the 90s. It will continue to blame the West for its ills. China will continue to play the long game. Ukraine will return to its pre-2014 borders.

No WWIII this time around.

[Sojourner]

It'll be fine with me if things turn out that uneventfully. One thing is certain: world events will eventually culminate in the Lord's return, and the commencement of His reign will end the ineptitude and corruption of mankind's pathetic self-governance.

[Fenris]

It's hard to say what the likely outcome is. It reminds me of chaos theory in mathematics. Some small event occurring during this war could spiral into a much larger and unforeseeable outcome.

The archduke's driver makes a wrong turn and it causes World War 1, World War 2, the Holocaust, the state of Israel, the Cold War, etc etc.

We can speculate, but thankfully, God is in control.

[Fenris]

Snappy write up here.

[Sojourner]

It's hard to say what the likely outcome is. It reminds me of chaos theory in mathematics. Some small event occurring during this war could spiral into a much larger and unforeseeable outcome.

The archduke's driver makes a wrong turn and it causes World War 1, World War 2, the Holocaust, the state of Israel, the Cold War, etc etc.

Yep, I marvel at the way a seemingly inconsequential incident precipitated a chain of events that changed history.

Life itself is often tenuous and fragile. I've been exploring my family tree for quite a few years. In my research, I discovered that my 3Ggrandfather got married a short time before enlisting in the Civil War. At only 20, he was mortally wounded in battle and died less than 4 months after enlistment. Fortunately, his wife was pregnant with their only child when he went off to war, otherwise the entire family line from him to me would never have existed and I would not be here. (Ironically that only child, Benjamin Franklin Rhodes, would grow up to marry and father TWELVE children).

We can speculate, but thankfully, God is in control.

Amen to that.

[IMINXTC]

The world is basically unable to stop this malevolent dictator because he has nukes.

Might as well toss the illusion of global security down the commode as long as he has this power. Russia, so far, appears incoherent.

The longer he gets away with it, and the longer he survive his maladies, the more he will be able to entertain further military ambitions, and there is no sanity in the assumption that he would not employ nuclear weapons. None.

I'm starting to miss the pandemic.

[Fenris]

Life itself is often tenuous and fragile. I've been exploring my family tree for quite a few years. In my research, I discovered that my 3Ggrandfather got married a short time before enlisting in the Civil War. At only 20, he was mortally wounded in battle and died less than 4 months after enlistment. Fortunately, his wife was pregnant with their only child when he went off to war, otherwise the entire family line from him to me would never have existed and I would not be here.

Interesting.

[Fenris]

The longer he gets away with it, and the longer he survive his maladies, the more he will be able to entertain further military ambitions, and there is no sanity in the assumption that he would not employ nuclear weapons. None.

Agree. If he does well, it upsets our nice global order and incentivizes other nations to be militarily aggressive and develop nukes. If he does poorly, he just starts slinging nukes. No happy outcomes.

[Sojourner]

Putin is unstable and acts impetuously. If he really is terminally ill and knows he is going to die, that makes him even more dangerous. But even if he's not terminal, it's disconcerting to have such an erratic person with access to nukes.

[RabbiKnife]

Such as the current occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue

[Sojourner]

Such as the current occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue

Point taken.   

[Fenris]

Such as the current occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue

I rather doubt he has access to the big red button.

[Cloudwalker]

Actually the POTUS always travels with the nuclear football.  He has access to it at all times.

[Fenris]

Actually the POTUS always travels with the nuclear football.  He has access to it at all times.

Does he even know what it is?

"Ah yes, this is the football from that time in high school when I scored four touchdowns in a single game. Polk High, it was." Stares off into the distance. "My girlfriend Peggy was so proud of me. And now I'm a shoe salesman. What were we talking about again?"